Newmarket, Aurora & East Gwillimbury
A buyer’s market continues to take hold as fewer listings meet softer demand — but opportunity is building for the patient buyer.
KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS
| 2.3%
Bank of Canada Overnight Rate |
4.5%
Prime Rate |
2.3%
Inflation (CPI, Jan 2026) |
6.09%
5-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate |
With mortgage rates still elevated at 6.09% for a 5-year fixed term, affordability remains the defining constraint in this market. The Bank of Canada’s overnight rate sits at 2.3%, and while further cuts are possible in 2026, buyers are not yet responding en masse. Employment growth in the Toronto area came in at 1.2% year-over-year in January 2026, providing a stable economic backdrop — but not the catalyst needed to unlock sidelined demand.
COMMUNITY SNAPSHOT — FEBRUARY 2026
MARKET ANALYSIS
Newmarket: Relative Stability in a Softening Market
With 46 sales and an average price of $1,068,928, Newmarket continues to be the most active of the three communities. The sales-to-new-listings ratio of 35.2% technically places this market in buyer’s territory (below 40%), but the gap is narrower than Aurora and East Gwillimbury.
At 4.7 months of inventory, Newmarket is on the lower end for the trio — meaning supply, while elevated, hasn’t overwhelmed. The 98% SP/LP ratio tells a key story: homes are still selling very close to asking price, suggesting sellers are pricing more realistically and buyers aren’t walking away from well-positioned listings.
Aurora: Premium Pricing, Longer Wait
Aurora commands the highest average price among the three at $1,229,261, but buyers are taking their time. At 40 days on market and 6.4 months of inventory — the highest of the group — there’s meaningful leverage for buyers who are patient.
The SNLR trend of 28.7% is the weakest here, indicating this is firmly a buyer’s market by TRREB’s measure. The 96% SP/LP ratio means there’s some negotiating room, though sellers aren’t capitulating dramatically. With 183 active listings against only 28 sales, selectivity is possible.
East Gwillimbury: A Market in Transition
East Gwillimbury recorded 19 sales — the fewest of the three communities — against 76 new listings, giving a raw sales-to-listings ratio of just 25%. With 5.7 months of inventory and an SNLR trend of 29.5%, this is a clear buyer’s market.
The average price of $1,227,587 sits nearly at parity with Aurora, yet buyers here are waiting an average of 35 days before purchasing — slightly quicker than Aurora — suggesting that when the right property at the right price comes along, buyers do act.
As a community that saw significant new construction activity in recent years, East Gwillimbury’s elevated inventory reflects the broader adjustment cycle playing out across outer York Region municipalities. Buyers exploring this area in 2026 are likely to find the best selection-to-competition ratio of the three communities.
“There is substantial pent-up demand in the GTA ownership market, with more than 100,000 buyers holding off on making a home purchase. Once we see prices level off and positive news on the trade front, there could be substantial momentum driving home sales in the second half of this year.”
— Jason Mercer, TRREB Chief Information Officer
Considering between Newmarket and East Gwillimbury , check our blogpost : Moving to Newmarket vs. East Gwillimbury: Which One Fits Your Lifestyle in 2026?
BOTTOM LINE FOR BUYERS & SELLERS
| For Buyers
All three communities are operating in buyer’s market conditions — defined as an SNLR below 40%. Aurora and East Gwillimbury offer the most choice, the most time, and the most room to negotiate. Newmarket is slightly tighter but still favours buyers. With 5-year fixed rates at 6.09%, every dollar of negotiated discount matters. Use the elevated days-on-market to your advantage: properties sitting 40+ days are increasingly open to offers. |
| For Sellers
Realistic pricing relative to active competition is essential. The 96–98% SP/LP ratios across all three communities tell us that overpriced listings are being corrected, not rewarded. Properties priced at or near market are still transacting within about 5 weeks. If you’re considering listing, spring 2026 is a window — but presentation, condition, and price discipline will separate the sold listings from the lingering ones. |
LOOKING AHEAD
TRREB estimates more than 100,000 GTA buyers are currently on the sidelines, waiting for prices to stabilize and for positive signals on the trade and interest rate fronts. If the Bank of Canada delivers additional cuts and confidence returns, the second half of 2026 could see a meaningful acceleration in activity in communities like Newmarket, Aurora, and East Gwillimbury.
For now, the market belongs to patient, prepared buyers — and disciplined sellers who price to the current reality.
Buying in Newmarket becomes much clearer when you talk through neighbourhoods, timing, and strategy with someone who understands the market at a street level.
If you’re weighing options or simply want to test your thinking, we’re always available for an honest conversation. The goal is clarity — not pressure.
Schedule a conversation with Nikolay & Tatiana Real Estate Team